Preparing for China's Turmoil

Rural riots against Chinese government tax collectors, economic overheating and rising inflation are indicative of the increasingly precarious position of China's political regime, says Jack Goldstone, a UC Davis sociology professor and an expert on revolution and rebellion. China's population and resource situation are reaching a point where dramatic action will be required to fend off a major economic crisis. Given the pressures, it is unlikely the collapse of communist rule in China can be averted, Goldstone says. The United States and other Western countries should prepare for the collapse by planning and seeking international agreement on policies for conflicts sure to arise in China's transformation. Goldstone also suggests that Western leaders urge China's leadership to establish institutions that would inspire investor confidence, such as an independent judiciary, civic associations and electoral legitimacy. Goldstone recently received an award from the American Sociological Association for his book, "Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World."