Forecasting's Future

Medium- and long-range weather forecasts must improvesignificantly before farmers will be able to use them effectively for planning crops and anticipating water needs, according to Bryan C. Weare, a climatologist and professor of land, air and water resources at UC Davis. In evaluating the accuracy of seasonal rainfall predictions, for example, he has found that forecasts by the National Weather Service and researchers at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego are only 10 percent more accurate than if the scientists had guessed. Researchers believe the atmosphere is chaotic in nature and, therefore, difficult to predict for long periods of time. But Weare says it may eventually be possible to predict fairly well the average weather for several months at a time. This information could prove valuable for farmers managing the water needs of their crops.

Media Resources

Pat Bailey, Research news (emphasis: agricultural and nutritional sciences, and veterinary medicine), 530-219-9640, pjbailey@ucdavis.edu