By tracking presidential elections since 1960, Robert Smiley, dean of the Graduate School of Management at UC Davis, has been able to see a correlation between the success of the incumbent party and the state of the economy at the time of each election. He found that the incumbent party seldom wins re-election when the country is in a recession. Smiley believes the last month before the election is critical for President George Bush. One possible path is through some sort of foreign policy venture that rallies the citizens around him or through economic recovery that voters can really feel, coupled with a clear plan for economic policy in his second term.